Calculating rate of the Chinese government's real debt

 Calculating the level of the Chinese government's real debt of gold
always get some of the more accurate inside information, according to their latest report, the local government financing platform for the end of 2009 outstanding loans (except for Notes,) about 7.2 trillion yuan, which in 2009 amounted to 3 trillion yuan added. expected in 2010 and 2011 follow-up loans of about 2-3 trillion, so the end of 2011 will reach 10 trillion yuan .10 trillion about the local government debt one-third of GDP in 2009, equivalent to foreign exchange reserves of 70%.
is the gold that the local government debt is now exaggerated, over-exaggerated.
2009, China's national debt balance of approximately 62,000 million (taking into account the central generation of local debt issued), the balance of 386.8 billion U.S. dollars foreign debt, total GDP was equivalent to 26% lower at the international level. Even if the platform with the 7.2 trillion debt, the total GDP, accounting for 47 %. still at the international level on the list of the most robust. This from the major economies, high general government debt levels are very different. the United States, European Union, the United Kingdom are 80% to 90%, and Greece to 130%, Japan close to 200%.
seems to China's future is much room for financial debt, the platform is not a big deal of debt seems to matter. But why everyone was so nervous.
is because China is not a transparent the real national balance sheet. It is difficult for the real liabilities of government at all levels bottom of the plate. we have hidden, there is no real liability exposure may be too high, the platform suddenly up trillions, put the future of our financial Pushed to the wall space maneuvers.
we can simply count those hanging about China, there is no implicit debt into government statistics.
if the newly started last year, government programs need to continue and do not want to be project, is expected this year and next platform for loans may have to reach 10 trillion. That is, the base in 2009, still need to increase 2 to 3 trillion of debt.
1998 years, to support the state-owned commercial banks reform, financial restructuring and the establishment of four asset management companies (AMC) was received 1.4 million spin-off of bad debts. purchase funds from two aspects: 604.1 billion yuan of the People's Bank of refinancing and the amount of AMC to the banks to issue 811 billion The bonds, guaranteed by the Ministry of Finance.
2004 and 2005, the Government has again BOC, CCB and ICBC to implement a second financial aid, China's foreign exchange reserves from 60 billion U.S. dollars has come into the three banks , a total of more than 7300 billion stripping doubtful loans and loss loans written off 450 billion yuan. In 2008 the same way non-performing assets stripped from the Agricultural Bank of China 800 billion.
2003 onwards, spend a lot of financial resources of the rural credit cooperatives -1 378 billion yuan of special central bank bills reform.
these very low bad debt recovery (also optimistic estimates about 20%), the loss is hung up, we see once again extended the commercial banks held by AMC release term bonds (one is 10 years), but the debt has not disappeared.
this part of our conservative estimate of the total with interest should be more than 3 trillion.
National University in recent years, the accumulated debt of about 200 billion, These are endorsed by the Government down.
losses are losses of state-owned enterprises over the years, food losses are losses of cotton procurement system, this one does not know about the total number. some provinces up to three, forty billion yuan.
pension Gold empty accounts, the current gap in the community on the empty account the specific figures vary, the Ministry of Labour and Social Security Zheng Silin 2004, former minister has given figures of 2.5 trillion yuan. has passed five years, and now I do not know how many . increments with each 1 billion should also be in the 3 trillion or more. If the provident fund, medical insurance, etc. into account the existence of empty accounts do?
light can figure this one implicit liabilities may be about 10 trillion .
other words, the Chinese government's true debt levels with the major developed economies, countries, is not low, conservative estimate I should be 70% ~ 80%.
but such a government debt ratio , is built on a relatively low level of public services based on. that is, say, to some extent the level of government there is still considerable However, only 3% on average in recent years and counting only 5 years, in the trillion or more. according to the normal state should bear the responsibility of social security, even the low level, it should benefit the most vulnerable groups in need of protection, but just in China implementation of negative security, the majority of farmers, informal employment and support groups, medical and unemployment benefit gap is huge, if you want to achieve national security, according to the existing level of protection, basic social security coverage to all, at least 5 trillion. by caused by inadequate environmental protection investment per year loss calculation, only count 5 years, also trillion or more. Therefore, China's government debt ratio has been established with the immediate benefits of the developed countries with high government debt ratio compared to seem more serious problem.
Frankly, the Chinese government considerable room for future maneuvers financial distress. Fortunately, up to 35 trillion of China's state-owned assets, the Government will further reform the release of dividends, set aside to resolve the debt problems of imagination.