6124 point drop from the lessons learned since

 6124 point drop from the lessons learned since the
mm Also on the study of Mao Zedong's military thinking and the importance of economic theory, finance and capital markets
Fudan Research Centre Director Professor Xie Baisan
Wednesday, the U.S. stock market rose 400 points, the Hong Kong stock market rose 1,000 points; and stabilized Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock While it may seem, but stocks still fell more than 90%. (Shanghai stocks down 89%, 92% decline in Shenzhen), and this is big, , the small-cap stocks fell together. Thursday, the stock market hit the lowest point mm3271 points down, then stood up, walked out of the rally. (what a high degree of rebound in the strength and how much remains to be seen.) is collapse of the system reform of the city to conduct a reflection since:
First, this ) since the record 6124 points, just five and a half, China's stock market has plunged more than 46%, while the stock has fallen by half, many, or even two-thirds; such as China Ping An fell to 48.3 yuan from 149 yuan and Yunnan Copper Industry fell to 28 yuan from 98 yuan; Chinese oil fell to 16.7 yuan from 48 yuan hh
small-cap stocks also plunged into the near future, such as: single blind, fell to 16 yuan from 29 yuan; Joint Chemical, from 30 yuan fell to 14 per hh
whether it is Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened in the most serious one since, in fact, one unknowingly bear market of institutional change. People must pay close attention, vigilance, must reflect on lessons learned and paid a heavy price to sum up the total Some regularities.
the previous two months, I saw on TV, newspapers, some experts suggest that you Do not only win, in essence, is the expense of small force to protect the large forces; is br> Although it is tragic, but the value.
Second, China's stock market is certainly not the barometer of the real economy
some scholars, the analysis of the stock market when stock analysts who repeatedly talked about: the Chinese economy is good, as as evidence, to console the people. Yes, this is one of the reasons, but very reluctantly. because the Chinese yuan is not freely convertible now, compared to domestic funds are still more than overseas; average share price will be higher. Moreover, so far, A shares or split share. Full played count, up only half of the stock out; the remaining half has not been in circulation. Thus we have the majority share of the Chinese mainland than Hong Kong, the United States. (of course, there are a few recent A + H share price upside down,), such as China Southern Airlines, where 14-15 million, only 5 dollars and Hong Kong, HK (also multiplied by 0.9); Aluminum Corporation of China for 20 yuan in the mainland, where it is 12 million (equivalent to more than 10 yuan RMB) ; In addition to China Merchants Bank, China Ping An and a few high-quality blue chips are close to Shanghai and Hong Kong, most stock prices here than in the U.S., Hong Kong's high. or A shares than B shares higher. (At present, Shanghai and Hong Kong stocks have to move closer to trend. )
China's stock market in the RMB is not freely convertible and tradable share reform has not fully completed, certainly can not be regarded as a barometer of the real economy. If you do not know to this point, it will not market to make the right judgments.
c, A + H; CSI who hold Hong Kong stocks end pricing?
before Syria and, in the past the vast majority of stock is low in Hong Kong than in mainland China, only Shanghai and Shenzhen stock one-half to one-third price. Now Dr. Ping and land close to the two line. but Hong Kong will certainly priced right. In fact, the pricing in the Hong Kong stock market, there are large blind; their banking, insurance and other financial stocks and real estate shares compared favor (so-called silver floor, with tall buildings); Therefore, the high price than the United States and Europe. And on the industry, non-ferrous metals, ferrous metals stocks were priced lower.
In addition, the Hong Kong compatriots do not know what do a ;, Federal Reserve monetary policy very popular there, influence; the U.S. interest rate cut it down. with China is very different, they do not implement a tight monetary policy, only three instruments (interest rates, reserve ratio and open market operations). China from Since October last year to implement a tight monetary policy is, in addition to the three traditional policy also added a makes the current monetary policy in China than the United States, Hong Kong, even more than Japan and Taiwan in 1989 (regions) also matter, and can be practiced in mainland China is very tight, extremely tight monetary policy.
In addition, Some (A + H) weights of the stock in Mainland China, Hong Kong, the weight is small; some are the opposite; So who is the main final pricing, not necessarily in the long run it. investors have a high degree of attention, vigilance this issue. < br> Fourth, the stock must conscientiously do a good job learning theory
a stock saying that .
South Korean shares also have a similar proverb: old ideas, difficult to adapt to the new situation. and do another 3-6 months too little experience, so do the level of a year and do the people who ten years comparable.
first thing every morning is the author Buy . Although a few thousand dollars a year spent press charges, but over time, we offer numerous learning the theory of knowledge, but also as far as possible to prevent the stock market, bond market burned.
, for example, from the tight monetary policy to the tight monetary policy (at the time saw this policy the central government in respect of the whole run on stock light); here although only the difference between the word, but the result is a very big difference, the problem must first understand monetary policy, get understand the there has been no sign of loosening, it recently from the China Banking Regulatory Commission Chairman Liu strictly control the second home loan on the speech, you can see, their attitude is still strong, firm.)
another example, what is the reserve ratio , last year raised many times, it is how much of the multiplier effect in the end.
fact, this round by the appreciation of the renminbi, excess liquidity, combined with the first phase of the share reform (10:3 to send to the price) due to 1000 points to 6000 points of bull market, that is, from the implementation of extremely tight monetary policy will be excess liquidity caused by the basic lock a lot of money, and the ; lifting of the ban and unwittingly into a bear market.
should also study and fiscal policy, exchange rate policy; study Western economics and international economic history. take a look at Japan, Germany, Korea, Taiwan (area) is how to through this period of the history of currency appreciation.
now see a lot of laid-off workers, white-haired old man also for stocks, not even newspapers are reluctant to buy, or read the news online, (which is nothing wrong with the big bull market, City in shock and the bear market in danger.)
This is like people do not understand repair high-voltage electricity, no water, people in the Cape of Good Hope in the wind waves in the swimming. the risk is too great.
V, Mao Zedong's military thinking Bibafeite, Soros was far more
fell 3272 points from 6124 points, this lesson is very profound. It now appears that Buffett-style value investing, long-term, super- long-term investment law in China, certainly at this stage is inappropriate, incorrect.
04-05 years if it is to buy when the 1000 Salt Lake Potash, China Vanke, China Merchants Bank, and so is the long-term release a few years. But The point to 6124, many stocks rose 100 yuan, and some have gone up 50-60 times a; looked at it helplessly slid 46%, in fact, is very unfortunate, very sad. was seen for high prices and high market value, in fact, once you have the wealth. how can you tolerate it shrink day by day, leave it mm to learn Mao Zedong's military thinking, specific conditions, application of flexible strategies and tactics.
careful study, I feel Mao Zedong's military thinking is actually more than investment guru Warren Buffett, George Soros is much more powerful, such as:
1) stick to the main contradiction and the main aspects of the ideological contradictions. round before the stock market, rose last year, the main reason currency appreciation, capital flooded and sent to the price of the share reform 10:3. fell down is the implementation of very tight monetary policy and low cost of 1 yuan, 1 yuan, listed in the stream of cash caused. before and after major changes have taken place the principal contradiction, the stock market will turn from the cow bears.
2) specific conditions of thought. such as Japan, Taiwan (area) currency appreciation, the stock market, the Housing City rose five years; and China rose from 2005.7-2007.10 only two and a half; The main difference is that the Chinese are Japan, South Korea, Germany and Taiwan (region) when the currency appreciation can be a lesson learned; In addition, China is a strong regulation of the economy of the country, the two-party system, not the implementation of a stringent regulatory policies, in addition, when the Japanese economists, government officials, the absence of a warning, most people indulge in a window-dressing it. (estimated that the real economy will impact the future by less than Japan).
In addition, the stock market down, housing market? Japan's stock market started falling in January 1990, the Japanese housing market is about half a year after the fall. The Chinese housing market? there are still two possibilities. In this regard, we are closely observed. If the housing market also fell (Now in addition to deep, ear, most of the city is not down), on the real economic impact on the big.
3) weak guerrilla war, win hit, can not win the left.
Mao really is the world's greatest military strategist, his first, second revolution of war, War, Liberation War and the Korean War commanded the battle over 239 times personally wrote the military papers, telegrams 5,000 articles, over 400 million words; win the war more than 90% probability, and can not understand ordinary people are vulnerable in the state of play in victory. This is the Chinese investors in the long term situation in which vulnerable very similar. Zedong situation on the battlefield is always sees clearly. To this end, developed a battlefield. should be determined only won only loss, guerrilla warfare. This is the environment in which the U.S. is very different woman. RMB is not freely convertible one day (5-8 years is unlikely), the share reform not completed the day (large, Small non-problem is not resolved); China's stock market to a large systemic risk.
fact, when last year the year before, RMB appreciation, the housing prices, prices can rise, not up. the only way to make it up, can be used as currency shunt is the stock market. was hard to control the stock market down, inevitable overkill today, will inevitably lose stage financing, investment function; pity.
six, the current major contradiction is that ; lifting of the ban and the issue of stock index futures
to highlight that, I point this is down from 6124 the situation has been a reflection. did not predict the current market trends and recommendations. U.S. stock market 190 years, the UK stock market 200 years, the Dutch stock market 400 years. No matter how done, do not lose heart and despair. Red Army to the northern Shaanxi, from 30 million to 2 million people, and later through the development of Sino-Japanese War after the 200 million people, 1949 of liberation, the development of the 400 million people. As long as careful study and repeated lessons, we will certainly mature., grew up.
current major conflicts, one from the tight monetary policy (like Shanghai and other personal loans loose; business loans are still very tight.) Second, the January is 28%, February was 39%. and the small retail investors, as the bull market in the multiple dividends for profit; some only a few cents, and therefore, there is a big impact on the secondary market. As a large proportion of non-small reduction is probably not willing, but unable to. the newspaper's analysis is wrong ; large non-too much, is equal to 5% to 60% of small non. But recently, and China Merchants Bank H shares in Hong Kong in support of peace under the sign of upward stabilize. is a comfort to people.
In addition, the stock index futures When launched, it has been highly anticipated, estimated far behind.
If launched, the blue chips (300 index of stocks, especially the former home of 50-100), there is a certain, stage stability and protection. but there are small-cap stocks in the diversion of funds and the cold effect. Budie recent small-cap stocks, probably related to this.
, of course, the long term, stock index futures is neutral, the stock market that rose The fall is dependent on itself, but the stage has some influence.
seven, writing is actually very difficult to
I stress again that this reflection, summed up the operation of the current market is not recommended. but to the first five and a half months of experience and lessons of a reflection.
fact, writing is difficult. First, every Thursday night, often sleep three to four hours; Second, the article can not write too straightforward, too Obviously, in order to avoid too much impact on the market. In fuzzy into the stock market itself from the risk of short-term focus the role of risk diversification. We all lose a little, the pain will be scattered. And speaking of too straightforward, very bad .
Third, the fact that we have worked hard, from this year, the blog, the original green background summer background color into the winter snow, which already has a deep implication.
fourth, too busy too busy, I often break the initiation of the study pen to write. afraid of judging the situation are not allowed to affect the market and friends.
Fifth, the view will be of significant personal bias, I hope you look at different point of view.
(Wang Qishan, Deputy Prime Minister as of the financial, this person is a doer, a high standard, on the Chinese stock market is a boon.)
suggest that you have the time to look at the author writes new book, which a few masterpieces on the current stock market operation is extremely helpful.
book information:
1, policy, exchange rate policy introduced.
2, can go around the Xinhua bookstores, or you can subscribe to the Beijing University Press: ,010-62757515,.