China has just opened the curtain of falling house prices

China housing prices fall season gets
- 2006). Was called Second, rational reflection.
Two years later, the Chinese real estate market has undergone great changes. Put it this way or is not accurate. Accurate to say, it should be, affecting the Chinese real estate market, a variety of factors: policy, demand, purchasing power, hot money, the stock market, etc., are quietly undergoing tremendous changes.
when the developers, local government and other parties with vested interests in the property market is still immersed in the profits in the day and night complains when the high prices in China can last? When Shenzhen, Guangzhou and other places, when housing prices fell, Beijing and other places of the housing market is immune to it? In this series of articles, I will discuss these issues.
Now, many experts emphasized that the adjustment of housing prices is over, about to begin a new round of rally. Before that, a developer is stressed that My point is: China housing prices fell off just opened. I had already made such a statement: rehearsal.



for the future price movements, I make three judgments:
First, the fall season gets, then there will be even larger decline.
Second, the decline will be long-term trend.
Third, the price differentiation will become increasingly apparent, the low housing prices will fall much more than high-grade commercial housing price declines. There are many reasons of which, the next will be analyzed in detail. May wish to propose a factor: China's stock market fell 60%, as a middle-income investors, property has shrunk dramatically, purchasing power suffered a heavy blow, which impact on house prices: first, the corresponding purchasing power of large mid-range housing reduced. Second, the process of falling house prices, then set to be ahead of those who Because the most important decision is not just housing needs, but the real purchasing power, lack of purchasing power of the support needs are difficult to translate into actual consumer demand. Combined with middle-income earners also face the absence of social security problems, have themselves expensive medical and education costs, etc., and further weakened the purchasing power of its housing.

potential demand from the point of view, supporting the strength of housing prices in China seems to be very strong, and this factor by developers and other vested interest groups to push an important theoretical basis for the high prices. However, if the actual purchasing power to support consumer demand and the current commercial structure, China's housing market is oversupply.
China is now (in addition to Shenzhen, Guangzhou and other cities outside the Pearl River Delta region) prices, the stock market at 6100 points is equivalent to the position, standing above the crowd.
Chinese property market profits in up to 10 years (mean local governments, developers, real estate speculators three profits) have been overdrawn under the phagocytosis and exhausted, far beyond the actual purchasing power of people in housing prices, decline is inevitable, which This trend will become more apparent clear, and the weak will be the long-term trend. Perhaps only until a future time, people can recognize the end of 2007 or early 2008, the highest point of house prices is so difficult to overcome!
data show that in March 2008, the U.S. new home sales median price was $ 227,600 each. This data mainly refers to single-family homes, which house an area generally about 200 square meters each, and the whole room decoration. Thus calculated is about the U.S. housing price of 7,000 yuan / square meter. New home sales in China in 2007, the average price of 3655 yuan / square meter (not rough house decoration), if coupled with renovation, priced at about 4100 yuan / square meters. Even from the absolute point of view, China's housing prices and the U.S. are very close. If the price is taken into account include the United States the land, and our house is only 70 years of land use rights, and then consider how America's annual per capita income is nearly three times twenty times, and then taking into account the quality of housing differences, consider other mechanisms of social protection to the United States far better than China, China is already far more than house prices house prices in developed countries.



from the supply and demand perspective, the strength of support from the housing prices of the four values, namely, the production, housing, investment and speculation. Since we are talking about the general prices for residential and non-productive space, so here the value of the latter three focus on the analysis to explore the future of the property market trends. When the housing as the housing needs of
that consumer demand, the decision price is the actual spending power of residents, usually prices and household disposable income to represent. The so-called The higher the ratio, indicating that households capacity to pay of the lower housing; the ratio of the smaller, indicating that households on housing affordability is higher. 1996, published by the United Nations Habitat World Habitat report, in the capital cities of 50 countries carried out investigation concluded that the fair price of a housing resident's annual income should be 2 to 3 times, such as up to 5 times , most people will not afford to buy, the market will be a problem. Housing market in developed countries, the Such as the United States, its
reality in our country, international experts (including the World Bank experts) are given a , you can buy a house. According to some research, 3 to 6 times the , while this ratio by the Chinese government's recognition. In 1998, the State Council No. 23 paper proposes a region of a floor area of ​​60 square meters of affordable housing, the average price and the average annual wage working families of more than 4 times, and then under the scope of affordable housing accounted for more than 80% of the population
The statistics show that Shenzhen City in 2004 and 2005 price earnings ratio of 6.52 times and 9.83 times that, while in 2006 surged to 15.76 times in 2007, soared to more than 20 times. Shanghai, Beijing and other cities in central city of the This shows that the internationally accepted
housing as an investment when the demand, the power of decision is the housing rent prices, the international ratio is usually expressed in rental. The so-called rental per square meter than the use of the area is the monthly rent per square meter floor area ratio between housing prices. International measure of housing well-functioning rental than the average standard 1:200-1:300. At present, China's housing prices far beyond the international warning line. To Beijing, for example, the rental is more than the basic 1:500-1:700 this range. Many people are buying houses for rental if not enough to repay the bank interest, even in the house was also unable to recover the investment quickly scrapped. This shows that no longer have investment value of housing.
then, house prices rose over the past why do it? Speculative value of housing is mainly used by speculators to the reason. The so-called speculative, that is, buy low and sell high through the housing to get the price difference. The media through a real estate survey found that more than 85% of the purchase behavior are speculative buyers.
from September 2007, the New Deal mortgage, our country started to take measures to increase the real estate costs and increase speculation threshold. Meanwhile, the fight against hoarding, require developers to accelerate the construction pace, the government also increases the supply of housing, social security, which are greatly restricted the upside of future prices, speculators have changed the mentality, and this attitude change is bound to reduce the speculation and forced to sell part of the hands of speculators ahead of the housing.
We know that in China's real estate market, in addition to the new housing supply, more investment in each year, settling down a surprising number of speculative stock of housing, once the expected shift in housing prices, a considerable portion of stock of housing will be forced to market, increasing the housing supply market.
Therefore, 5 August, the National Bureau of Statistics Economic Review said that the current situation in terms of macro-economic level and policy level or needs, do not support housing prices continued to rise, 10 years of housing prices, the Chinese real estate market began to return to the rational.



weakness in housing prices in China will be a long-term trend.

housing is consumed by people. The last century, the fifties and sixties, China encourages fertility, birth rate rising rapidly, this growth trend has continued into the 70s last century our implementation of the 1970, China's total fertility rate of 5.8 to 2.75 in 1979 had fallen. In 1980, China has implemented more stringent family planning policy - By 2000, China's total fertility rate dropped to 1.22.
control about the trend of prices, from the 90s of last century, five of the last century, people born in the sixties began to form rigid demand for housing in the new purchasing power, driven out of our house wave of rapid increases in prices. However, as of now, our implementation of This change in population structure will undoubtedly affect people directly on the expected future prices, which in turn is expected to direct human consumption, affect investment behavior, and transmitted to the real house prices were to go.
Moreover, China is gradually into the old society, the social security system is not perfect, the only children born after 1980 when married, raised four will face the elderly, under the double burden of raising children. The burden of housing purchasing power of the future will pose a direct constraint. At the same time, child marriage, at some point in the future will also inherit their parents existing property, a self-occupied, the rest of the set of one or more housing units in the market. This will also affect future price movements. Of course, the housing 80 after the child's concept of consumption is also cause for concern. If they are higher demands on the quality of housing, upgrading of housing (which only has the purchasing power of the child generation), will constitute a support of high-quality housing prices, while its original home market, thereby, increasing housing prices differentiation, that is, the quality of housing in the affordable housing is high and the prices are more vulnerable.
we can very clearly the change from primary school enrollment, to perceive the future of the sudden change in housing consumption groups. I went from 1991 to 2007 the Drastically reduced the number of primary schools, part of the data are listed below:
million people. 62 million people. > Development Statistics Bulletin National Total Primary 491,300, a decrease of 62,300; enrollment 1944.21 million, a decrease of 2.26 million people. 456,900, a decrease of 34,400; enrollment 1952.80 million, an increase of 8.59 million people, Business Development Statistics Bulletin National Total Primary 366,200, a decrease of 28,000; enrollment 1671.74 million, a decrease of 75.27 million; the students 10864.07 million, a decrease of 381.04 million people. National Education Development Statistical Bulletin , a decrease of 152.53 million people. increased 6.71 million; million students in 10,564, a decrease of 147.53 million; School Graduates 1870.17 million, a decrease of 58.31 million people. reduced from 646,000 to 320,100, reducing by more than half! Enrollment, from 2524.66 million, down to 1,736.07 million, reducing the 788.59 million; in the school's 13,615 students from 1996 people, down to 10,564 million in 2007 to reduce the 3051 people.
primary school pupils and the number of rapid decrease, is the inevitable result of China's family planning policy, which means that China's population structure are taking place in the great change. Its price impact will be profound. From the population structure, decline in house prices will be long and difficult to reverse.
In addition to demographic factors, urbanization is considered to be another important force in supporting prices. The so-called urbanization, is that farmers into the city, that more and more farmers out of agriculture, from rural to urban in the secondary and tertiary industries. However, many people overlook a very important factor, namely, the quality of urbanization itself. In developed countries, the process of urbanization, to a certain stage of economic development is the result of natural cause, while the low quality of China's urbanization, largely out of the birth, and not accompanied by simultaneous increase in purchasing power. To landless peasants, for example, the process of urbanization in China, and many landless farmers are forced to became poor, that Obviously, the urbanization as the driving force pushing up housing prices overestimate the economic power of farmers. In foreign countries, because a large proportion of the land is private, with landless peasants in the process of urbanization, land appreciation reap the benefits of their purchasing power because of the urbanization process and greatly enhanced. If you put aside the quality of urbanization, and one-sided emphasis on the proportion of urbanization, it is difficult to draw the right conclusions.